What happened in France’s shock election, and what comes next?

On Sunday night, there was joy as French voters once again kept the far right out of power. By Monday morning, however, the mood shifted to uncertainty due to a hung parliament, fragile alliances, and the potential for turbulent times ahead

President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap parliamentary election to "clarify" the political situation. However, the surprising second-round results have left the political waters more muddled than they have been in decades.

Although the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition's surge thwarted Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party, French politics is now more disordered than it was before the vote.

So, what did we learn last night? Who might be France’s next prime minister? And has Macron’s gamble "paid off?"

A surprising victory, but not a decisive one.

After leading the first round of voting last Sunday, the RN was closer to power than ever before, nearly forming France’s first far-right government since the Vichy regime of World War II.

However, following a week of political bargaining, in which over 200 left-wing and centrist candidates withdrew from the second round to avoid splitting the vote, the NFP—a coalition of parties ranging from the extreme left to the more moderate—emerged with the most seats in the crucial second round.

The NFP secured 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group in the 577-seat parliament. Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which lagged in a distant third in the first round, made a strong comeback to win 163 seats. Despite leading the first round, the RN and its allies won 143 seats.

Does this mean the NFP "won" the election? Not exactly. Although the coalition holds the most seats, it fell well short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament. If this was a victory for anything, it was for the "cordon sanitaire"—the principle that mainstream parties must unite to prevent the extreme right from taking office.

The far right kept at bay but more potent than ever.

It was supposed to be a coronation. Crowds of supporters gathered at the RN party headquarters in Paris and at various locations across the country, anticipating the moment they felt was decades in the making: confirmation that their party, with its long-taboo brand of anti-immigrant politics, had won the most seats in the French parliament.

That wasn’t to be. The fervent atmosphere soured as supporters saw the RN slump to third place. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader chosen by Le Pen to refresh the party’s image and purge it of its racist and antisemitic roots, was displeased. He railed against the “dangerous electoral deals” made between the NFP and Ensemble, which he claimed had “deprived the French people” of an RN-led government.

“By deciding to deliberately paralyze our institutions, Emmanuel Macron has now pushed the country towards uncertainty and instability,” Bardella said, dismissing the NFP as an “alliance of dishonor.”

A disappointed Jordan Bardella speaks at an election night event at the RN headquarters in Paris. Kevin Coombs/Reuters.

However, the RN’s success should not be underestimated. In the 2017 elections, when Macron swept to power, the RN won just eight seats. By 2022, it had surged to 89 seats. In Sunday’s vote, it won 125 seats, making it the largest individual party. This unity means the RN will likely remain a potent force in the next parliament, while the solidity of the leftist coalition remains untested.

Will the left remain united?

A month ago, the NFP did not exist. Now, it is the largest bloc in the French parliament and could provide France with its next prime minister. The coalition named itself in an effort to resurrect the original Popular Front that blocked the far right from gaining power in 1936. Sunday’s results suggest it has achieved this goal once again.

However, while it accomplished its founding purpose, it remains uncertain whether this broad—and potentially fractious—coalition will hold together. The hastily assembled bloc comprises several parties: the far-left France Unbowed, the Socialists, the green Ecologists, the center-left Place Publique, and others.

This many-headed hydra does not speak with a single voice. Each party celebrated the results at their own campaign events, rather than together. Two of its most prominent figures—Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the populist France Unbowed leader, and Raphael Glucksmann, the more moderate leader of Place Publique—are barely on speaking terms.

Disagreements over economic and foreign policies could spill over, as the NFP’s expansive spending plans—including raising the minimum wage, capping the price of certain foods and energy, and scrapping Macron’s pension reforms—collide with the European Union’s restrictive fiscal rules and France’s need to rein in its ballooning deficit.

A better night for Macron than expected, but he emerges weakened.

Macron once said his thoughts are “too complex” for journalists. Yet, his decision to call a snap election—three years earlier than necessary, and with his party trailing in the polls—baffled even the sharpest political analysts, caught his closest allies off guard, and left many French voters confused.

He called the vote minutes after his party was trounced by the RN in last month’s European Parliament elections. Although European results do not necessarily affect domestic politics, Macron said he could not ignore the message sent to him by voters and wanted to clarify the situation.

But Sunday’s results suggest he has achieved the opposite. Édouard Philippe, France’s former prime minister and a Macron ally, remarked that what was “intended as a clarification has instead led to great vagueness.” Although Macron’s party recovered somewhat from the first round, it lost around 100 seats compared to the 2022 election.

Where does France go from here?

Macron’s first decision is to appoint a new prime minister. He has already delayed this process by declining Gabriel Attal’s resignation, asking him to stay in office for now.

Typically, the French president appoints a prime minister from the largest bloc in parliament. However, it is unclear from which party within the NFP this will be. Mélenchon’s party won the most seats within the NFP, but Macron’s allies have repeatedly refused to work with France Unbowed, arguing it is just as extreme—and therefore as unfit to govern—as the RN.

To reach the majority needed to pass laws, the NFP will likely have to form alliances with Ensemble, creating a larger coalition that spans a vast ideological spectrum. Finding common ground will be challenging, leading to potential gridlock. Without a clear majority, a minority government risks no-confidence votes, which could result in several governments replacing each other in quick succession.

One possible solution could be a “technocratic” government, with Macron appointing ministers with no party affiliation to manage day-to-day matters. However, such a move can appear undemocratic and may further fuel populism. Italy, for instance, elected its most far-right government since Benito Mussolini after the technocratic premiership of Mario Draghi. While France has avoided a far-right government for now, the RN threat is likely to remain strong.